MODELS; FINANCIAL, CLIMATE, LINGERIE

I have been reading alot about climategate and it got me thinking about models, computer models that attempt to mimic reality and predict the future. if you look at the history of this activity, it is less than perfect, sometimes abysmally wrong.

many of the models used on wall street to manage risk, a seeming oxymoron, rate mortgage backed securiteis, etc. blew up, and contributed mightily to our recent financial melt down. i assure you however that all these firms are chastened and have gone back to the lab to build better models, which will likely be better but way not perfect.

now we have climate models. these arrogant, ideological pricks in east anglia believe their models are correct, or if not believe in the cause so much that they will cover up their flaws. now i happen to think modeling is good, but it is at best an approximation that needs to be tested and improved continuously. my gut is todays models are potentially as flawed and primitive as the ones used to give AAA bond ratings.

which leaves me with the only models beyond criticism. Victoria's Secret lingerie models!

COPENHAGEN

so its over and we agreed to agree to something that is unenforceable and unverifiable. sounds like success to me. my concerns are if man made emissions are a problem, i dont know, they might be, though the east anglia suppression of contra info and manipulation of data is not reassuring; its more than Co2, there is methane from farting cows, pigs, sheep and harry reid.
and
the developed world is irrelevant. if you look at the curves, the developed world is flat. the growth is china. if the us reduced emissions by 10% which would be huge, this would be wiped out by one years growth in chinese emissions.

and the Chinese have the balls, they in fact do, we dont, to ask us to pay for them to me more energy efficient; so we can raise taxes to give to the Chinese to further roll over us. remarkable.

bitch, bitch, bitch,

what should we do, act from self interest, this includes energy efficiency, negawatts, next gen solar, so called clean coal, coal is huge in us and china and will be used so make it as clean as possible, wind? it sure is ugly. nuclear, yes, electric cars; check out the audi e-tron

be tough minded with china. we are not friends, we have a relationship but we are frenemies, they want to be dominant and if you follow their actions around the globe they are clearly pursuing such a strategy.

WHY ARE WE CLOSING QUANTANOMO?

as we move detainees to yemen, great place for civil rights, and illinois, i wonder why we are doing this, again. seems lite gitmo is a pretty cool place for detainees. what makes yemen and illinois better?

just asking

HEALTHCARE; THE BRIBES CONTINUE; A ROSE BY ANY OTHER NAME

so the senate figured out that there was opposition to the "public option". so lets just change its name. they got rid of the public option and replaced it with medicare for everyone aged 55 and above. now medicare was basically broke already so what is adding 10 more years of lives to a broke system, a good hunk of the baby boom generation, myself included, into medicare. its the public option by another name.

jeez!

FEDERAL RESERVE INDEPENDENCE

this country did not get onto a sound financial footing until it had a stong central bank. i am not in love with either alan greenspan or ben bernake but congressional attacks on the feds power and independence is hugely dangerous; too dangerous.

mistakes were made. but many correct decisions were made also. having a strong independent fed is a requirement for our country. during the meltdown, did you look into the eyes of harry reid and nancy pelosi? deer in the headlights, they didnt have a clue.

this is serious. keep congress away from the fed!

CBO; CORRUPTED OR MISSPUN?

one of the few reliable sources of analysis is the CBO, also the GAO. so the cbo just came out with a report on the senate health bill. in the nytimes, the headline says "no big cost rise in u.s. premiums is seen in study."

when you read the details however this conclusion is AFTER government subsidies. in fact premiums will go up but the government with somebodies money is going to give certain people subsidies against the increases, so after the subsidies there will be no big increase. what sophistry!!!!!!!!!!

on page 20 it says that, "the proposal would tend to increase premiums for people who are young and relatively healthy and decrease premiums for those who are older and relatively unhealthy."..the average premium per person in the individual insurance market would be 10percent to 13 percent higher than under current law.... 18 million of the 32 million people buying insurance on their own would qualify for the federal subsidies, which would reduce their costs well below what they would have to pay under current law.

this is a great incentive. lets punish the healthy and reward the unhealthy! its been estimated that 70% of health problems and costs come from lifestyle. we should incent healthy lifestyle maybe? this is just tax the rich and redistribute to the people who vote and contribute to the democrats.

one of our great institutions, the cbo is being used and tarnished.

as they say, "if the queen had balls, she'd be king!"