it is hard enough to predict the weather without politicizing it. but thats just what happened with Irene. mayor bloomberg got tagged for not being prepared for last winters snow and didnt want to get tagged again; so he was ultra conservative and he is an opinion leader. then chris christy needed to show who was the man; then last we had obama who didnt want Irene to become his Katrina which led him to say to the american people that Irene was going to be a historic hurricane!
this led to fine american cities, like boston to shut down their mass transit systems which in essence shut down the city with nothing but light rain and a little wind. much to do about nothing
aint politics grand?
Sunday, August 28, 2011
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
HISTORY IS WRITTEN BY THE WINNERS
remarkable events in libya. it was interesting watching the west decide how to play different arab countries during the arab spring uprisings. france and italy had clear strategic interests in libys, oil. not clear why the US picked libya while passing on syria. it could have gone either way; win and youre a hero, lose you are a goat. obama deserves some credit. he placed a bet. putting nato out front was smart politics and resource sharing. but he was too slow which led to it being a 6 month campaign with euro support fading. it will be interesting to see what emerges in libya. a moderately democratic government building a new country for the libyan people? sectarian violence like iraq? the revolution is only the first step. revolutions can be hijacked. that is the risk in egypt. one of the reasons mubarak went was that a younger generation of milatary were disaffected, in part because they were not getting their share of the goodies. egypt could end up under the control of the milatary or in combination with the muslim brotherhood.
the middle east has been riddled and hobbled by a post colonial; cold war legacy of military, authoritarian, corrupt governments, supported by either the west or russia; usually with an agenda around oil, the wealth was not shared, the people suffered, often their misery turned into radicalized violence, often directed toward israel which really was not responsible for their misery.
it will be interesting how this all unfolds.
the middle east has been riddled and hobbled by a post colonial; cold war legacy of military, authoritarian, corrupt governments, supported by either the west or russia; usually with an agenda around oil, the wealth was not shared, the people suffered, often their misery turned into radicalized violence, often directed toward israel which really was not responsible for their misery.
it will be interesting how this all unfolds.
Sunday, August 7, 2011
THEY STOLE OUR CREDIT RATING!
as most of you know, the US's credit rating was downgraded to AA+ on friday. before addressing this event fully, lets get the irony out of the way
S&P, one of the two dominant rating agencies, along with MOODYS, rated trillions of dollars of mortgage backed bonds AAA which had no business be rated as such and led materially to the global financial crisis. they probably should have been shot for this. god knows why they werent. so the irony of one of them now downgrading the US is pretty high.
having said that. if i was a financial analyst at said rating agency and someone gave me an anonymous file on the US, without the name and maybe changed the absolute numbers but kept the proportions to further mask the identity of the issuer, i would probably downgrade it also. based on the numbers, the projections and the politics.
does it matter? shit yes! what are we going to do about it? we will see. We should fire the govenment and all govenments that dont do their jobs in an honest and competant manner. but we have the govenments we deserve. we deserve these assholes. what are we going to do about it?
i was talking to a friend yesterday and i said we elected our own hugo chavez. and he said yeah, but without the oil. you all may have different opinions.
the strength of a country rests on many things; its values and belief system. its education system, its economy. from their actions, it doesnt seem that most people in washington and in the white house have a clue how to nurture a stong economy. the US has an almost 15 trillion dollar gdp. so 20% is $3 trillion dollars. dont you think most of us could design a govenment on a 3 trillion dollar budget? you cant take in 20% and spend 25% and borrow 1.5 trillion year in and year out. your shouldnt raise taxes so the input goes to 25%, 3 trillion is enough. we need a flatter, simpler tax code. most people dont pay much in taxes. the ones that do are of a class who in fact create jobs. i remember when i got my first big bonus check many years ago and i said to myself, 25% of this is really mine. 50% will go to the government and and 25% will go to my future ex-wife. so i was operating on a psycological tax rate of 75%. a bit steep. how about the following
for individuals
0-20,000 0% tax but pay social security etc
20k-40k 10%
40k-100k 15%
above 100k 22% and get rid of most deductions.?
and all income is treated the same, salary, bonus, dividends, capital gains, carried interests?
getting rid of the mortgage deduction is tricky. if you just eliminated it, the price of real estate would just drop, making a weak economy a disaster. maybe do nothing. it is attacked as a fetishistic subsidy of a personal asset but if you buy a commercial building, interest is deductable. why isnt a home a capital asset? certainly most families look at their homes as a major store of their families capital. maybe just make sure that mortgages are credit worthy; full documents, underwritten etc.
this obviously is rambling but i am mad as hell. those assholes lost my credit rating and i am pissed.
S&P, one of the two dominant rating agencies, along with MOODYS, rated trillions of dollars of mortgage backed bonds AAA which had no business be rated as such and led materially to the global financial crisis. they probably should have been shot for this. god knows why they werent. so the irony of one of them now downgrading the US is pretty high.
having said that. if i was a financial analyst at said rating agency and someone gave me an anonymous file on the US, without the name and maybe changed the absolute numbers but kept the proportions to further mask the identity of the issuer, i would probably downgrade it also. based on the numbers, the projections and the politics.
does it matter? shit yes! what are we going to do about it? we will see. We should fire the govenment and all govenments that dont do their jobs in an honest and competant manner. but we have the govenments we deserve. we deserve these assholes. what are we going to do about it?
i was talking to a friend yesterday and i said we elected our own hugo chavez. and he said yeah, but without the oil. you all may have different opinions.
the strength of a country rests on many things; its values and belief system. its education system, its economy. from their actions, it doesnt seem that most people in washington and in the white house have a clue how to nurture a stong economy. the US has an almost 15 trillion dollar gdp. so 20% is $3 trillion dollars. dont you think most of us could design a govenment on a 3 trillion dollar budget? you cant take in 20% and spend 25% and borrow 1.5 trillion year in and year out. your shouldnt raise taxes so the input goes to 25%, 3 trillion is enough. we need a flatter, simpler tax code. most people dont pay much in taxes. the ones that do are of a class who in fact create jobs. i remember when i got my first big bonus check many years ago and i said to myself, 25% of this is really mine. 50% will go to the government and and 25% will go to my future ex-wife. so i was operating on a psycological tax rate of 75%. a bit steep. how about the following
for individuals
0-20,000 0% tax but pay social security etc
20k-40k 10%
40k-100k 15%
above 100k 22% and get rid of most deductions.?
and all income is treated the same, salary, bonus, dividends, capital gains, carried interests?
getting rid of the mortgage deduction is tricky. if you just eliminated it, the price of real estate would just drop, making a weak economy a disaster. maybe do nothing. it is attacked as a fetishistic subsidy of a personal asset but if you buy a commercial building, interest is deductable. why isnt a home a capital asset? certainly most families look at their homes as a major store of their families capital. maybe just make sure that mortgages are credit worthy; full documents, underwritten etc.
this obviously is rambling but i am mad as hell. those assholes lost my credit rating and i am pissed.
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