remarkable events in libya. it was interesting watching the west decide how to play different arab countries during the arab spring uprisings. france and italy had clear strategic interests in libys, oil. not clear why the US picked libya while passing on syria. it could have gone either way; win and youre a hero, lose you are a goat. obama deserves some credit. he placed a bet. putting nato out front was smart politics and resource sharing. but he was too slow which led to it being a 6 month campaign with euro support fading. it will be interesting to see what emerges in libya. a moderately democratic government building a new country for the libyan people? sectarian violence like iraq? the revolution is only the first step. revolutions can be hijacked. that is the risk in egypt. one of the reasons mubarak went was that a younger generation of milatary were disaffected, in part because they were not getting their share of the goodies. egypt could end up under the control of the milatary or in combination with the muslim brotherhood.
the middle east has been riddled and hobbled by a post colonial; cold war legacy of military, authoritarian, corrupt governments, supported by either the west or russia; usually with an agenda around oil, the wealth was not shared, the people suffered, often their misery turned into radicalized violence, often directed toward israel which really was not responsible for their misery.
it will be interesting how this all unfolds.
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