after spending $50 Billion dollars of the governments and a bunch of oligarch's money on an ok Olympics, the last thing Putin wanted was for Ukraine to distract from his headlines. but the best laid plans...
he after all had a lot to do with it. the western narrative of east vs. west is too facile; it is undoubtedly more complicated. Ukraine was in fact headed toward a relationship with the EU and i cant prove it but it sure seems likely that at the last minute,Putin showed up
with both threats and inducements ($15B) and Yanukovich abruptly pulled out of the EU deal into a Russian deal. the was likely the precipitating event but there were other issues such as the appropriation of power by Yanukovich by forcing a change in the constitution and corruption.
i actually don't think this was a US manipulation. i don't think we have the skills or the balls to pull it off. i think the Ukrainians actually wanted their country back. Putin has dreams of a greater russia, like Islamist's have dreams of reestablishing the Caliphate and even israel has some who believe in a greater israel. beware any one with dreams of a "greater" anything. tears and bloodshed will follow
anyhow, back to the title. Putin invaded Georgia on trumped up pretexts. why not in Ukraine? if you look at a map Ukraine is important. it is between Poland and Russia, the former used to be under the thumb of the USSR but escaped and is now attached to the EU. Ukraine has both energy and agricultural assets and is strategic. if they "lose" Ukraine, greater russia is less great.
now i dont know what happened to the talk about a tri-tripartite arrangement where an independent Ukraine trades with both the east and the west?
it will be interesting. if putin goes in, no one will stop him. certainly not the US who wouldn't even supply a no fly zone or act in any way in Syria after a very red line was crossed when Assad used chemical weapons on civilians. and neither will the EU. so it will come down to does he want the bad pr?
pretty said state of affairs
lets hope for the best
Sunday, February 23, 2014
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