the EU going after Ireland, not Apple directly, to go after Apple is the latest indication that protectionism is afoot in the land and nothing good will come from it. Is the Apple/Ireland tax deal bad public policy? probably. But is was entered into 25 years ago when there was no EU limitation on such an arrangement. So this is an ex-post facto reach back attacking an agreement made by a sovereign. Not good
But as we look around the world at the backlash against trade agreements, globalization, immigration, trump and Hillary, competitive devaluation through ridiculous QE monetary policy and it feels like things may go badly.
by the way, all these reactions are rational or at least understandable. we as a society of nation states are doing a bad job managing change. maybe a trade agreement does increase GDP and GDP per capita but how is the increase allocated? If you are the one laid off, the trade agreement doesn't feel so good.
given how poor a job we do in the US managing change and the mess that calls itself the EU and an aggressive and transitioning China, i think things could go badly
remember Smoot-Hawley
Thursday, September 1, 2016
Wednesday, August 3, 2016
THE GREAT UNRAVELING
timing is everything. we were all waiting for Trump to blow himself up and no matter what he did he seemed impervious to any thing he said or did. i believe he even said that if he shot someone, his followers wouldn't bat an eyelash. and it seemed to be self-fulfilling.
until
until he went after the parents of the dead soldier.
that was a mistake. on so many levels. aside from being morally wrong it was tactically wrong. i guess his calculus was that what the gains from his anti-immigration positions gains him more than it loses but i think this will be deemed the turning point where enough people say, that was too much. he is not acceptable.
until
until he went after the parents of the dead soldier.
that was a mistake. on so many levels. aside from being morally wrong it was tactically wrong. i guess his calculus was that what the gains from his anti-immigration positions gains him more than it loses but i think this will be deemed the turning point where enough people say, that was too much. he is not acceptable.
Monday, May 30, 2016
RIO WILL NOT END WELL
wouldn't it be nice to have a time machine and go back to the first Olympics? a lot has happened since then. Greece went bankrupt. among other things. but for those of us who do not have the time, patience, talent and perverseness to write a book vs. dashing out a screed, here are a few thoughts on the upcoming 2016 event in Brazil which gives me pause;
1) there is barely a functioning government.
2) the facilities and infrastructure are suspect. this is often the case as they run out of time and money and slap most of it together just before the torch gets lit. the bridge that collapsed after an ocean wave gives pause
3) pollution. i happen to be a sailor. the water off of Rio is full of raw sewage and is a petri dish of bad stuff. i hope none of the competitors catch something really bad.
4) ZIKA. neither WHO or CDC will try to call this off. i understand sunk costs and vested interests and maybe they know what they are talking about. but it doesn't sound right. millions of people from all over the world are coming to Brazil and then going home. while it has been said that zika is coming, to the US and other places, no matter what, why throw gasoline on the fire? they are not suppressing mosquitoes effectively in Brazil and Olympics will create carriers and transmission
and there will be sex. check out the stats at the amount of sex that takes place at the Olympics. there will be an all time record of 450,000 condoms distributed to the 8255 athletes coming to the games.this includes 100,000 so called female condoms but still adds up to 500 per athlete. what stamina? how do they have any energy left for sport?
anyhow there will be a lot of sex. and Zika can be spread by sex. and the birth defects are horrific.
so lets not get in the way of the passion and the money.
lets have a party and spread ZIKA
1) there is barely a functioning government.
2) the facilities and infrastructure are suspect. this is often the case as they run out of time and money and slap most of it together just before the torch gets lit. the bridge that collapsed after an ocean wave gives pause
3) pollution. i happen to be a sailor. the water off of Rio is full of raw sewage and is a petri dish of bad stuff. i hope none of the competitors catch something really bad.
4) ZIKA. neither WHO or CDC will try to call this off. i understand sunk costs and vested interests and maybe they know what they are talking about. but it doesn't sound right. millions of people from all over the world are coming to Brazil and then going home. while it has been said that zika is coming, to the US and other places, no matter what, why throw gasoline on the fire? they are not suppressing mosquitoes effectively in Brazil and Olympics will create carriers and transmission
and there will be sex. check out the stats at the amount of sex that takes place at the Olympics. there will be an all time record of 450,000 condoms distributed to the 8255 athletes coming to the games.this includes 100,000 so called female condoms but still adds up to 500 per athlete. what stamina? how do they have any energy left for sport?
anyhow there will be a lot of sex. and Zika can be spread by sex. and the birth defects are horrific.
so lets not get in the way of the passion and the money.
lets have a party and spread ZIKA
Thursday, May 19, 2016
TRUMP IS THE NEW LEICESTER CITY
at the beginning of the Premier League season, the odds of Leicester City winning the championship were 5,000 to 1. some die hard fans put down bets for 50 Pounds. no one thought they stood a chance. and they didn't. except they won. fortunately for the bookies, they didn't place too much money at these odds but they got clobbered.
well, we all should have put 50 pounds down on Trump at least winning the nomination. the odds of actually winning the presidency were probably even longer.
most everyone has underestimated him from day one till even today. as he took out every other republican candidate, starting with Jeb Bush; he with the $100 million dollar war chest until none were left standing.
and the question is why and what will happen next. the why is he tapped in early to the massive discontent, fear and anger in this country at the break down of the societal bargain. all countries have societal bargains. in China it was, we will provide economic growth, you don't rock the boat politically. that bargain may be breaking down in the face of slowing growth and massive pollution; with a population that might be getting old before it gets rich. and in america, the american dream; everyone has a shot at the top and most can have a good life if they work hard. well we are on the brink of a societal fail. the people who are supporting trump are not bad people per say. they are afraid, they are mad, they are lost. it is fact based. not psychosis. the elites, and on paper i might qualify as such, have failed america and we are reaping that harvest. Trump is an unfortunate leader of this wave of discontent and i have no idea what will happen. but more of the same wont fly.
into the whirlwind
well, we all should have put 50 pounds down on Trump at least winning the nomination. the odds of actually winning the presidency were probably even longer.
most everyone has underestimated him from day one till even today. as he took out every other republican candidate, starting with Jeb Bush; he with the $100 million dollar war chest until none were left standing.
and the question is why and what will happen next. the why is he tapped in early to the massive discontent, fear and anger in this country at the break down of the societal bargain. all countries have societal bargains. in China it was, we will provide economic growth, you don't rock the boat politically. that bargain may be breaking down in the face of slowing growth and massive pollution; with a population that might be getting old before it gets rich. and in america, the american dream; everyone has a shot at the top and most can have a good life if they work hard. well we are on the brink of a societal fail. the people who are supporting trump are not bad people per say. they are afraid, they are mad, they are lost. it is fact based. not psychosis. the elites, and on paper i might qualify as such, have failed america and we are reaping that harvest. Trump is an unfortunate leader of this wave of discontent and i have no idea what will happen. but more of the same wont fly.
into the whirlwind
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